WinStar TDN Preakness Preview

As Wednesday's draw approaches, here's a look at the likely GI Preakness S. entrants, ranked in order of estimated win probability:

1. ALWAYS DREAMING (c, Bodemeister—Above Perfection, by In Excess {Ire})

O-Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables et al. B-Santa Rosa Partners (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-1-1, $2,248,700.

Last Start: 1st, GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

There are some years when the Derby winner “backs into” the Preakness off an unconvincing score in Louisville and every wiseguy on the planet is looking to bet against him in Baltimore as a vulnerable favorite. This is not one of them. Always Dreaming showed on the first Saturday in May that he can handle (or establish) high-level pace pressure, fend off multiple mid-race attacks, torque into several overdrive gears, and open up willingly over Classic distances without appearing taxed by doing so. Always Dreaming is now 4-for-4 in 2017, winning three races in succession at nine furlongs or greater. He's been an enthusiastic trainee since settling in at Pimlico, where trainer Pletcher said, “This whole two weeks in between the Derby and the Preakness is all about just refueling and keeping him healthy and happy.” None of this, however, should be read as an endorsement that Always Dreaming is an automatic lock to bring home the Woodlawn Vase. Given the trip trouble and apparent dislike for the slop at Churchill Downs that some of his rivals encountered, it's logical to think that at least one of those foes will rebound with a far sharper race in the Preakness. The Preakness will unfold differently strategy-wise too, with every other rider in the race cognizant of where the Derby winner is positioned (jockey John Velazquez might as well be riding with a target emblazoned on his back). But the hedge here is that in a cleanly run race, Always Dreaming has enough room to improve even if his rivals gang up on him pace-wise, and his development over the past two months gives the impression he has not yet bottomed out in terms of stamina and resiliency.

2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

O-John C. Oxley. B-Steven & Brandi Nicholson (KY). T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $475,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 8-5-0-1, $2,220,220.

Last Start: 4th, GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15, 1st, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5, 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 8, 1st, GIII Bashford Manor S., CD, July 2.

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Classic Empire

Classic Empire proved in the Derby that he's a pretty tough horse who can take a physical beating without retreating. In fact, this hard-charging colt almost seemed emboldened by being slammed offstride at the break, getting so roughed up that he suffered a number of abrasions on his right front leg, and having his right eye swollen shut after being pelted with mud prior to grinding home fourth (the cuts and his eye have reportedly since healed). Although he rated from 13th place at Churchill Downs, expect him closer to the action in the Preakness. That was trainer Casse's original Derby strategy anyway, and a better-breaking Classic Empire in stalk mode with a cleaner trip against a shorter field over a (perhaps) drier track looms as the most serious threat to Always Dreaming's Triple Crown aspirations. Even though Classic Empire's missed training and races earlier this year were not by design, the “blessing in disguise” talk is heating up regarding how he's just now approaching peak form because of those delays. But you have to decide for yourself whether you think Classic Empire is relatively fresh and just now hitting his best stride or if he's been asked to do quite a bit–maybe too much?–to catch up to the sophomores at the highest level of the division. The Preakness will be only his third start in a 98-day window. But remember, those three races will all be crunched within a five-week time frame, and Classic Empire's Derby try was a much more arduous affair than he's been used to.

3. HENCE (c, Street Boss—Floating Island, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-2-1-1, $462,601.

Last Start: 11th, GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Sunland Derby, SUN, Mar. 26

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Hence has the makings of a horse who could jump up and run a big race in the Preakness, and he might even be the overlay of the field, betting-wise. I'm willing to toss out his Derby based on trainer Asmussen's interesting post-race assessment that the colt didn't necessarily “not handle the track” so much as Hence “just jumped up and down the whole way” and got a little overwhelmed with kickback without expending much energy. If the Derby had truly sapped Hence, Asmussen would be disinclined to run him right back two weeks later, so I'm going to regard this colt's chances in Baltimore practically the way I rated him going into the Derby: Hence beat a better-than-it-looks field in the Sunland Derby, has run well both rating from off the pace and laying considerably closer (second beaten a neck on the lead as a 2-year-old), and will now be making his second start off a six-week freshening. He may be a chestnut, but Hence is a legitimate “dark horse” in the Preakness.

4. CLOUD COMPUTING (c, Maclean's Music—Quick Temper, by A.P. Indy)

O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings, Inc. & Stretch Run Ventures, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-1, $171,000.

Last Start: 3rd, GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Cloud Computing falls under the “fresh face” category for this year's Preakness, and he's an intriguing candidate to spring an upset. Yet even though this angle gets played up every year, “fresh” horses that don't start in the Derby haven't accounted for many recent Preakness victories. The last two sophomores to do it were both anomalies in my opinion: Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) in 2009 won the GI Kentucky Oaks against fillies the very same weekend as the Derby (so it's not like she avoided racing two weeks prior to the Preakness), and the 2006 Preakness win by Bernardini (A.P. Indy) will always have an asterisk next to it in my mind because of the tragedy that befell Barbaro (Dynaformer) at the start. Those two victories respectfully excluded, you have to go back 17 years to Red Bullet (Unbridled) in 2000, and then another 17 years to Deputed Testamony (Traffic Cop) in 1983 to come up with the most recent Preakness winners who sat out the Derby. Yet Cloud Computing has some positives in his favor: He was a solid winner on debut in February, then ran a game second in the Gotham S. in an ambitious placement for his second start. He got bet way down in the Wood Memorial, in which he was three wide on the first turn before behind ridden hard to attain a commendable third-place finish. Cloud Computing qualified for the Derby on points, but his connections opted to sit out the first Saturday in May, declaring three weeks ago that the Preakness would be the colt's next goal. “He breezed very well, galloped out super and came back good so far,” trainer Chad Brown said after a :48.85 half-mile move (2/32) at Belmont Park on Saturday. “That's his last piece of work and if he comes out of it well he'll be on to Baltimore on Tuesday.”

5. CONQUEST MO MONEY (c, Uncle Mo—Stirring, by Seeking the Gold)

O-Judge Lanier Racing. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Miguel L. Hernandez. Sales History: $150,000 Ylg '15 FTNAUG; $8,500 2yo '16 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 5-3-2-0, $508,900.

Last Start: 2nd, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Mine That Bird Derby, SUN, Feb. 26, 1st, Riley Allison S., SUN, Jan. 29

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

The underdog Conquest Mo Money (based on his $8,500 dispersal auction price and off-the-radar early career in New Mexico) is taking a prudent path to the Preakness. His connections opted not to supplement the late Triple Crown nomination fee of $200,000 to get into the Derby even though the colt qualified on points, but the Preakness isn't exactly cheap either, requiring $150,000. In the Arkansas Derby, Conquest Mo Money established good early position four wide and in hand, backed off midway down the backstretch, re-took the lead, fought and brushed with another rival off the turn, wandered out late despite stout right-handed encouragement, and had victory snatched away in the final strides when a stronger, more powerful Classic Empire barreled by in the shadow of the wire. Despite being unraced at age two, all five of Conquest Mo Money's lifetime races since January have been two-turn affairs. So stamina should not be a challenge, but class will be in the Preakness–his first four races were all against lesser Sunland Park foes. But then again, that Arkansas Derby he most recently exits could be shaping up to be a key race considering it produced two of the Kentucky Derby's first four finishers. And, for good measure, note that Conquest Mo Money was two lengths better than Irap (Tiznow) three starts back, and that rival eventually improved enough to win the GII Blue Grass S. in a later start.

6. GUNNEVERA (c, Dialed In—Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)

O-Peacock Racing Stables, LLC. B-Brandywine Farm & Stephen Upchurch (KY). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $16,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 10-4-2-1, $1,170,200.

Last Start: 7th, GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4; 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S., DED, Nov. 19; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 14

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gunnevera

Gunnevera has already stamped himself as a colt who can drop far off the pace and make one long, sustained run against fairly high-level competition. But his execution of that tactic hasn't changed much from age two to three: He remains at the mercy of the pace in front of him (the hotter the better), and–judging by his non-threatening Derby seventh in the slop–he requires a dry track condition. It's also a bit troubling that his only win in 2017 came when an 11-10 favored rival finished far off the board, so a case can be also made that Gunnevera also needs some of the top guns not to fire their best shots for his deep-closing kick to succeed. His regular rider, Javier Castellano, has opted off to take the mount on Cloud Computing, so Mike Smith will partner with Gunnevera for the Preakness. On the plus side, this colt has stamina-heavy bloodlines that are well suited to Classic distances. So if you're willing to bank that Gunnevera's Derby didn't take a lot out of him, he remains (as I felt before the Derby) a solid candidate to finish in the money in the Preakness, with an outside chance to win it all provided a fortuitous speed setup materializes in front of him.

7. LOOKIN AT LEE (c, Lookin At Lucky—Langara Lass, by Langfuhr)

O-L and N Racing. B-Ray Hanson (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & MGISP, 10-2-3-2, $852,795.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Ellis Park Juvenile S., ELP, Aug. 6

Next Start: Possible for GI Preakness S., PIM, May 20

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

So what has a week done regarding your assessment of Lookin At Lee? I was initially pretty impressed with his Derby second at long odds from a brutal post, and moving forward I rank him as a very useful graded-stakes caliber horse. But in order to win the Preakness, “Lee” is going to not only have to match his Herculean, career-best race, but improve upon it by at least four lengths to be on level terms with the formidable Derby winner and the competent cast of rested challengers. If you consider that the collective connections of nearly half the field in the Derby used the “didn't like the track” excuse (and we assume that Lee, by contrast, relished it), and you further factor in that the far-back, rail-hugging Mine That Bird (Birdstone) type of move that jockey Corey Lanerie executed with good results in the Derby traditionally does not work as well in the Preakness, Lee will have a difficult task ahead of him in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. I also have a tough time dismissing the facts that he's winless since Aug. 6, has never won beyond seven furlongs, and has never won a race anywhere else but Ellis Park. So I'd have to demand a very fat mutuel before banking that Lookin At Lee will continue to progress in enough of an upward arc to upset the Preakness.

8. MULTIPLIER (c, 3, The Factor—Trippi Street, by Trippi)

O-American Equistock. B-Mark Stansell (KY). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Sales History: $62,000 Wlg '14 KEENOV; $220,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $120,000 RNA 2yo '16 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-1, $187,310.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Illinois Derby, HAW, Apr. 22.

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Multiplier required three starts to break his maiden this winter at Fair Grounds, then was plunged into the deeper end of the pool against a sneaky-good field of seven in the Illinois Derby. His nine-furlong win at Hawthorne is stronger than the running line and narrow victory at nearly 9-2 odds might indicate. Multiplier broke running from the rail, was rated back to save ground in fifth all the way to the quarter pole, was tipped out to the three path for the drive, got pocketed on the heels of favorite Hedge Fund (Super Saver) for about 70 yards approaching the eighth pole, then blasted past that rival with a visually impressive kick in the final sixteenth to win by a head at the wire. Joel Rosario will be Multiplier's new jockey in the Preakness. As for strategy, trainer Walsh said, “If the pace is slow, he'll be closer. If not, he'll be a little ways farther back. He'll come running at the end, I know that for sure.”

9. SENIOR INVESTMENT (c, 3, Discreetly Mine–Plaid, by Deputy Commander)

O-Fern Circle Stables. B-Dixiana Farms LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $95,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-3-0-1, $207,080.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Lexington S., KEE, Apr. 15.

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

In the Lexington S., Senior Investment dropped far off the pace and still had only one horse beaten 2 1/2 furlongs from the wire, but he put his head down and kept methodically chugging along. He still didn't look like he'd be involved in the photo a furlong out, but Senior Investment's steady, building momentum carried him past the two favorites on the lead and he got the job done at Keeneland. He's now won four of his last five races (but got disqualified from one win), yet it's difficult to rank Senior Investment among the top win threats for the Preakness. His prior maiden and optional-claiming wins simply don't match the same level of class that the upper-echelon horses in this race sport on their resumes.

10. TERM OF ART (c, 3, Tiznow—Miles of Style, by Storm Cat)

O-Calumet Farm. B-Whisper Hill Farm, LLC (KY). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales History: $220,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 9-2-1-2, $170,105.

Last Start: 7th, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Cecil B. DeMille S., DMR, Nov. 27.

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Term of Art owns a maiden and a Grade III off-the-turf score from 2016 but has been blanked in four straight Santa Anita graded stakes preps this spring. He did manage a pick-up-the-pieces third in the overheated San Felipe S. when Mastery (Candy Ride (Arg)}) annihilated the field, but his six-wide move off the turn in the slowly run stretch drive of the Santa Anita Derby was only good enough to earn Term of Art seventh. He is likely to go off as the longest shot on the board in the Preakness, and the price will reflect Term of Art's lack of sharp early speed and absence of a commanding closing kick.

–By T.D. Thornton